"For the first time, we have a whole pipeline from start to finish where earthquake occurrence and ground-motion simulation are physics-based," Milner said.
EARTHQUAKE 5 MINUTES AGO IN CALIFORNIA CODE
Their results compare well with historical earthquakes and the results of other methods, and display a realistic distribution of earthquake probabilities.Īccording to the developers, the new approach improves the ability to pinpoint how big an earthquake might occur in a given location, allowing building code developers, architects, and structural engineers to design more resilient buildings that can survive earthquakes at a specific site. Coupled with another code, CyberShake, the framework can calculate the amount of shaking that would occur for each quake. However, a new framework for predicting the likelihood and impact of earthquakes over an entire region, developed by a team of researchers associated with SCEC over the past decade, has found a middle ground and perhaps a better way to ascertain risk.Ī new study led by Milner and Bruce Shaw of Columbia University, published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America in January 2021, presents results from a prototype Rate-State earthquake simulator, or RSQSim, that simulates hundreds of thousands of years of seismic history in California.
The traditional way of getting around this lack of data involves digging trenches to learn more about past ruptures, collating information from lots of earthquakes all around the world and creating a statistical model of hazard, or using supercomputers to simulate a specific earthquake in a specific place with a high degree of fidelity. A San Andreas earthquake could impact a much larger area than the 1994 Northridge earthquake, and other large earthquakes can occur too. "Using Southern California as an example, we haven't had a truly big earthquake since 1857-that was the last time the southern San Andreas broke into a massive magnitude 7.9 earthquake. "We haven't observed most of the possible events that could cause large damage," explained Kevin Milner, a computer scientist and seismology researcher at the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) at the University of Southern California.
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